This is the Guardian’s map which I believe uses the AP’s results (which is why Arizona is called in it. Although it was called prematurely, Trump is unlikely to flip it back to red.) Nothing has been called since Wednesday (or was it Thursday) when WI and MI were called for Biden. Most media outlets give Biden 253 EV with the AP/Fox map giving Biden 264 because of their AZ call.
How do I feel today? Pretty damn good. The media hasn’t called it yet but at this point, given the amount of votes that remain to be counted in Pennsylvania, virtually all are coming back heavily democratic, this race is done. Even if a recount flips Georgia back to Trump (which I don’t think it will), Biden will certainly keep PA, AZ and NV. And he already has over 4 million more popular votes than Trump if you want to start discussing mandates. And that number is certain to increase. So what happens next after the media calls it? How will the toddler in chief react to being a lame duck?
Why, not well. Not well at all. My guess is we won’t get a concession speech. He’ll peddle his conspiracy theories, declare all votes fraudulent that didn’t break his way, and expect the Supreme Court to back him up. Trump’s mind is purely transactional. He’ll think that the Justices he put on the court owe him and this is their time to back him up. And I don’t see it happening. If the race had been closer, if it had come down to one state, his wild accusations would have been easier for the GOP to get behind. But this isn’t a Florida 2000 situation. From all the reporting being done, all of these counting stations are being extremely careful with the counts. Quite a few of them even have livestreams on YouTube of them doing the actual counting. Only his most fanatical of supporters in congress are halfheartedly backing him up at the moment, but the writing is on the wall and I expect them to start peeling off as they realize Trump’s time in power is all but over.
Trump will not take this loss well, and he will start striking out at the allies who have abandoned him. I expect him to use his pardon power as a weapon to anger his enemies. He may even try to pardon himself. I don’t buy that he’ll quit so that Pence can pardon him. He’ll hang onto that office as long as possible. He won’t go to Biden’s inauguration or any events where past Presidents all gather. I also don’t buy that he will have to be dragged out. He’ll leave the White House willingly but not quietly. He’ll partner with OAN or some other media company so that he can shriek at his followers for the rest of his days. He’ll claim that he’s going to run again in 2024, and may even attempt it, but most of his followers will lose interest in him. Only his most devoted cult members will remain. A Trump without the presidential seal will not be as interesting to them. He will go to his grave gnashing his teeth about the stolen election. He’s a sad little man who will not be remembered fondly.
Meanwhile, Biden gave a speech last night. I listened to it and it was amazing for the simple reason that I had missed what a real president sounds like. He framed what he would begin doing. It wasn’t a victory lap that we have gotten so conditioned to hearing whenever Trump takes a microphone. Biden realizes the scope of the situation with covid-19 now giving the US record daily numbers of infections. The speech gave me hope that we will have an actual adult in charge very soon.