Trump’s potential pardon of Sheriff Joe Arpaio, explained

I don’t think Trump will pardon Arpaio. There’s too much for Trump to lose politically on it and Trump only gives a shit about himself. But it would give credence to the Inverse Trump Square Law if he does. With his head swelling from the pundits calling him Presidential last night, this would be the perfect example of him going immediately off the rails:

On Tuesday night, President Donald Trump is returning to the place where, in some ways, it all began for him: Phoenix, Arizona, where he held his first multi-thousand-person rally in July 2015.

This time, he won’t have (now-former) Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio by his side — Arpaio has said he hasn’t been invited to Tuesday’s rally. But Arpaio’s shadow still looms large over the rally. After all, President Trump has floated the possibility that he might soon bestow his first presidential pardon upon Arpaio, absolving him of the criminal contempt-of-court conviction he got last month for continuing to engage in aggressive immigration enforcement in defiance of a 2011 court order.

Pardoning Arpaio, who hasn’t even been sentenced yet, would be an unusual move, to say the least. But it would make a tremendous amount of sense for Trump. Not only would the president be doing a favor for an early endorser, who helped validate Trump among the immigration hardliners who have since become a large share of his base; it would send a powerful message to sheriffs around the country who are worried that cooperating with federal immigration authorities could get them into trouble with the courts as well.

The Inverse Trump Square Law is in Effect

The Inverse Trump Square Law states that every victory for Trump is inversely proportional to the clusterfuck of bad decisions that he does immediately afterwards.

Last time he had a “victory” was when he got the repeal debate vote passed. Immediately following that he tweeted a call for a transgender ban in the military, gave a speech to the Boy Scouts which was so bad that they actually had to apologize for it, he fired his chief of staff, his director of communications went on a rant with a New Yorker reporter and was fired within the next few days and McCain torpedoed the repeal bill.

Last night, Trump gave a speech and the pundits immediately declared it a victory for Trump:

Oh boy. Let’s see what’s on Trump’s schedule. Oh, a rally in Arizona. What could go wrong?

Update:
Ron Howard’s voice “It went wrong.

Update 2:
So since Trump’s “victory” at reading a teleprompter he has:

  1. Gave a raving speech in Arizona
  2. Pardoned controversial Sheriff Joe Arpaio
  3. Enacts the transgender military ban
  4. Threatened a government shutdown if Congress doesn’t pass a bill paying for the wall.

There’s Always a Tweet, Always (Part 1,832,009)