Lovely. And two more days left. Two more long and agonizing days. Forget that cortadito recipe the post below this, we’re going to need something with alcohol.
NBC’s Tom Winter has insight into the new letter that was sent to Congress today by FBI Director James Comey. According to Winter, the FBI decided not to change their conclusion on the matter of Hillary Clinton‘s email server because nearly all the messages they recovered from Anthony Weiner‘s computer were duplicates of messages that their investigation has already reviewed.
WTF happened to Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight? They blew the primaries and their models have been all over the charts for the pres election. Tuesday could vindicate them if Trump keeps it close (or wins) but Silver going off on articles criticizing 538 isn’t really putting him in a good light:
Nate Silver Goes to War With HuffPost Writer: ‘You Have No F*cking Idea What You’re Talking About’
Nate Silver rose to prominence in 2012 when, as a writer for The New York Times, he correctly predicted the winner of the Presidential election in all 50 states.
Now with the ESPN-owned website FiveThirtyEight, Silver is slightly less certain of the election outcome this year, and slightly less certain than any other major poll aggregator of a Hillary Clinton victory. As of this writing, Silver gives Donald Trump a 35.2% chance of winning the election. The Times, by comparison, has Trump’s win probability at 14%.
And the Huffington Post gives the Republican nominee just a 2% chance of victory — which moved their Washington bureau chief, Ryan Grim, to write a piece criticizing Silver for “putting his thumb on the scales.”
Grim accused Silver of changing poll results to acheive a result beneficial to Trump.
“By monkeying around with the numbers like this, Silver is making a mockery of the very forecasting industry that he popularized,” Grim wrote.
I get why Silver wants to hedge. It’s not easy to sit here and tell you that Clinton has a 98 percent chance of winning. Everything inside us screams out that life is too full of uncertainty, that being so sure is just a fantasy. But that’s what the numbers say. What is the point of all the data entry, all the math, all the modeling, if when the moment of truth comes we throw our hands up and say, hey, anything can happen. If that’s how we feel, let’s scrap the entire political forecasting industry.
Silver’s guess that the race is up for grabs might be a completely reasonable assertion ? but it’s the stuff of punditry, not mathematical forecasting.
Silver responded to Grim’s piece with a fiery series of tweets.