Hillary Clinton Will Be Nominated Because More Democrats Are Voting For Her

Don’t get me wrong. I like Bernie as much as I can like a politician. But it’s just kind of ridiculous at this point that he thinks he has a shot of being the Democratic nominee. Hillary at the moment has over 3 million more votes than he does (and is destroying him where it counts, the delegates). People seem to be forgetting that when Clinton conceded in 2008, her and Obama were virtually tied in the popular vote and the delegate counts were very tight.

From FiveThirtyEight:

It’s an emblematically annoying ending to the Democratic campaign, one that reflects both the acrimony between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders and the fact that Clinton, in the end, is winning her party’s nomination by every available measure.

At 8:20 p.m. EDT on Monday night, The Associated Press declared Clinton to be the presumptive Democratic nominee based on her having accumulated 1,812 elected (pledged) delegates and 571 superdelegates, for 2,383 total delegates, exactly the number needed to win the nomination. In the overwhelming likelihood that Clinton’s nomination is confirmed at the Democratic convention in Philadelphia next month, she will officially become the first woman nominated for president by a major American political party.

In a statement released after the AP’s call, the Sanders campaign argued that the media is wrong to declare Clinton the presumptive nominee by including superdelegates, correctly pointing out that superdelegates can change their vote up until the convention, as several dozen superdelegates did in flipping from Clinton to Barack Obama in 2008. FiveThirtyEight’s pledged delegate count, which does not include superdelegates, has Clinton with 1,8111 pledged delegates to 1,526 for Sanders. The Sanders campaign said its “job from now until the convention is to convince superdelegates that Bernie is by far the strongest candidate against Donald Trump.”

But Sanders’s statement — and the AP’s call — distract from the larger point. Clinton will be the Democratic nominee because substantially more Democrats have voted for her. In addition to her elected delegate majority, she’s received approximately 13.5 million votes so far in primaries and caucuses, compared with 10.5 million for Sanders.

But there could be an explanation:

6 Comments

  1. It makes me wonder though, if they had a primary season without primaries, just debates and campaigning, and then held a one or two-day vote across all states, much like the general election, would Clinton win tomorrow. Many of the early delegates went for Clinton because Sanders was an unknown, or worse an unknown with crazy great uncle hair and self-described as a socialist. Hist popularity has only grown though, and he’s made inroads in the minority demographics that eluded him early on. Stack that against how she polls against Trump now, and the cost of a Trump presidency, and I bet things would stand a fair chance of ending differently.

    Too late for this election, and it will never change anyway, so idle thoughts…

    1. So in this scenario, for Sanders to win the primary you would have to ditch the primary process??

      Guys! Bernie lost. He put up a fine fight but it’s over. And that is using every single metric available. Hell, Cruz had more of a shot against Trump and the party was definitely against Trump. This one is over.

      1. No, I’m saying there isn’t a scenario here for Bernie to win, Clinton does have the majority of votes.

        My point is that there may well be people who voted in the early states last WINTER for Clinton because Sanders was an unknown quantity who would vote for him today given the opportunity. Given his later success it raises the question if she truly enjoys the support of most of those who have voted for her. If the intent of the process is to pick 1. standard bearer for the Party and 2. the best option for winning the election, it would be best to do it in a short timeframe after all of those in the running have had a chance to make their case.

        Again, will never happen.

  2. Yeah, I was rooting for Bernie for a long time. Even if he didn’t have much of a shot to win, he was nudging the Dems to the left, which I think is good. But at this point, it seems like he may be doing more harm than good.

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